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Grains Market Review on Jan 20th
Calls: Yesterday saw the wind come out of the bulls sails across the entire commodity sector with weak length running for cover taking volatility into the sewers in front months. Paper was a seller early and often of CH, SH and WH vol with only late buying offering any minor support. The trade feels things are entering a consolidation period with volatility expected to fall a bit more before traders want to establish fresh longs. The areas of interest are May and Dec with the July across the board showing the highest individual levels. There was talk that China inked a deal to import 500 TMT Australian feed wheat with no time period announced. This was taken as negative corn...I disagree. I think this is proof that they are looking for feedstuffs making this purchase the first of what I believe will be many for wheat and corn in the coming months. KC fell against CHI but Minni held ground which is a bit perplexing but I attribute the move to money flow and profit taking, not a shift in HRW weather or production expectations. Wheat held in against corn with this spread garnering attention via options with the CZ 650c versus the WZ 1200 call looked at by paper. I love the idea of doing wheat corn at a 550 advantage in Dec. I wouldn't touch the July but Dec feels safe to me right now. The general feeling was one of getting out, not shorting the market. The long term bias remains bullish everywhere so I suggest looking at any further break in price or volatility as an entry opportunity. The overnight session saw early strength evaporated due to a lack of fresh buying and lower markets in China and the EU. Both KC and Minni got back to their winning ways versus CHI with hi protein versus feed wheat the apex of market talk. Today's session looks to open weak with negative pressure from a mildly stronger USD and a weaker crude market. Pressure from softs will enhance the negative early feeling.
Beans are called 8-10 Lower flailing around under the contract high of 1432.50. Indicators are mixed in the upper half of the range. $14.00 is psychological support but it's not expected to hold. Corn is called 5-7 Lower falling off the contract high of 666.25. The pattern looks similar to October when we fell for 5 days before rallying to new highs. Indicators are mixed in the middle of the range looking to turn strictly negative following today's expected down day. Wheat is called 6-8 Lower after failing to hold a move over $8.00. The 20-day offers first support at 785.00. Indicators are positive in the bottom end of the range. Meal is called 3-4 dollars Lower backing off the fresh contract high of 388.50. The 20-day MA ascending from 371.30 offers first support. Indicators are mixed in the upper half of the range. Bean oil is called 40-50 Lower looking for support at the range low of 56.66. This backs up to 12/27. Indicators remain negative but S. Stochastics are approaching the bottom end of the range.
Fundamental: Argentina saw soaking rains across BA, La Pampa and N. BA but most of the moisture missed Cordoba. This will ease fears over a 46 MMT bean crop but the corn damage looks to be almost confirmed following no help. Take this down to 18.5 MMT and the world balance sheet gets tight in a hurry.
In Brazil continual rains in the northern reaches have traders taking about Rust. This is not confirmed yet but it is something to watch closely.
Open interest shifted as follows: Corn +763, Beans +4733, Wheat +5093, Meal +926 and oil +5441. Following the collapse in price seeing no drop in OI shows there remains a strong commercial bid under the market. There is little reason to think this disappears but Ethanol margins are flat to negative for near term so there will be a reduced interest from that sector.
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Yesterday's talk of 500 TMT Aussie feed wheat to China is way inflated. All that is confirmed is 3 cargos (165 TMT estimate) at $260.00/tonne FOB.
Yesterday saw cash basis at the Gulf tank for beans losing 13-cents. Corn lost 1-2-cents with SRW losing 3-4-cents. This leaves corn either side of 50 over CIF with beans 65 over CIF.
No export sales this morning due to the MLK holiday. They will be out tomorrow morning.
The 6-10-day weather model shows a growing region of dryness now extending into E. KS and OK. This is a further problem for farmers of HRW. There is no relief in sight for additional snow coverage heading into the latter part of the hibernation stage. This should only enhance the long term prospects of the HRW spreads versus feed wheat.
The Argentinean farmers strike is rumored to be extending a week due to no movement by government officials.
LATE SALES: Jordan buys 100 TMT US Wheat for H-J delivery. Algeria buys 200 TMT Durum wheat for March delivery and in a separate deal buys 400 TMT Canadian Durum. This is all quality wheat people.
Options: Yesterday saw another dismantling of front end volatility with CH, SH and WH getting pounded. This is due to positions rolling forward ahead of the steepening theta decay curve. Added to this is the impending expiration of Feb options. The SG 1400 strike is the most populated with 3,500 calls and 3,000 puts. SH volatility falling to 26.5% is a shock this early in the year with so many unknowns in S. America and US planting ahead of us. May sitting at 29% is a buy for me. Can buy covered 1620 calls for 30-cents on the early drop today. You are buying 33% volatility 2-dollars out. Not bad. This is a 23 delta play. Straight volatility buyers can look at owning the SK 1220-1620 strangle for 42 or less (plus commissions and fees.) You are buying the call at 30, the put at 12 with vol calcing at 30%. There is a nice 2.5% put slope inversion you are buying. You have a 9 delta long positions (23c-14p) offering additional upside incentive.
MACROS:Are all negative with weak length running for cover. Talk of Chinese inflation following a GDP of 9.8%. This will force China to raise reserve rates killing speculative money. Macros look to dominate fundamentals today.
Gold is trading 23.10 Lower sitting at 1,347.10.
Crude is trading 1.11 Lower sitting at 89.75 as of 8:25 CST.
The Euro is .003 Lower against the USD trading at 1.3442.
The Yen is .70 Higher against the USD trading at 82.66.
Daily Wisdom: Be courteous to all, but intimate with few, and let those few be well tried before you give them your confidence. -George Washington
About the Author
- Matthew Pierce,
Grains Guru Writer of Pitguru - Learn more about Grains futures trading & Update Futures Prices
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