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The Times That Try Men's Souls – Is it time to buy US Stocks?
I must admit the Bears have taken over a trillion dollars from the peak of the S&P 500 and this is more than I expected but not outside of expectations. Just like you, I get disheartened when the stock market makes such a plunge. It is no fun to watch your investments drop in value. Remember, this is why it is so hard to be a good investor. It pays to be a stubborn son-of-a-gun. My family knows my stubborn streak. My friends are saying I am a fool for not selling. However, I have resisted the temptation to sell and I am hanging on with clinched teeth. I am sure you share the pain too.
Today this down leg is 7.2% below the peek on April 29, 2011. The S&P 500 peeked at 1363.61 and has drop to 1271.83. The S&P 500 was at 1271.87 on the first day of trading for 2011 – not much different from today. Yes, the whole years gains are erased – at least for now. Yes, this is the worst economy the US has faced since the Great Depression. Yes, some are calling this the Great Recession. I would laugh harder if it were not so true. So what is an investor to do? It sounds crazy to suggest buying but…
Let us look at some more facts first. Several news blogs report that the average correction since 2009 has been 9%. If I recall correctly, this is near the lifetime average for corrections. However, every 5 years the stock market corrects over 20%. If you trust statistics we are closer to the end of the correction than the beginning. But the correction could be much deeper, so no one can say for certain what will happen.
Now, let us look at market psychology – with a twist of statics. Powerful forces push the market into historic yearly trading patterns. Over the last several years, investors are much more likely to sell in May and June. However, "Sell in May and stay away" is an age-old stock market expression. So the tendency to sell for the summer has been around for a very long time. It is more pronounced, in recent years, because the economy is so week. It is hard to trust that things can get better. This static trend is almost as reliable as the year-end rally. Many investors know these statics and they try to play to them. I shall show you a time-tested way to play this at the end of the article!
The media jumps in and adds to the volatility with the sensational news stories. Remember last summer? The US is going to go into a nasty double dip recession. Europe was going to implode due to the weight of Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain (PIGS). China was going to shoot up in the air and explode into pieces because of runaway inflation. However, despite the summer angst came an intense long lasting bull rally. All I can ask is could they not run a different disaster story for this summer? To make my case short, I just do not take the summer blues news to heart any more.
I shall offer a few more compelling facts before the final leap of faith conclusion. Love them or hate them, my favorite economic forecaster is the US Federal Reserve Bank. Dang, if Ben has not been getting predictions right? Right? Even before the current bank president, they really do have one of the best track records for getting things right about the economy. Their monetary policy is controversial but the forecasts are as good as it gets. Okay they are not perfect. But I remember laughing out loud when Merrill Lynch would predict the economy and I would compare that to the Fed's. What a hoot. I always wondered, how does Merrill Lynch survive? Oh, and where is old Merrill these days? (FOTRD - Found on the Road Dead) Who says the private sector is always better that the public? Be careful of blanket statements and ideas. Be savvy and judge things on facts and not political rhetoric. Anyway I digress.
So what do the Fed's say? The Japanese Mega-disaster was so bad that it has hit world trade hard. That and the huge jump in oil and food prices hit the US economy when it was already frail. They correctly forecasted that a slow down in economic activity would squelch higher trending oil prices. In deed, official inflation data today was lower than the average expectations. They go on to predict that the Japanese reconstruction shall be a net positive to the world economy latter this year. Therefore with tame inflation, reconstruction and growing GDP's world wide, we shall see another year-end stock market rally. True US GDP is likely lower for 2011 that originally forecasted but growth non-the-less.
Okay, so what is an investor to do? It is now time to take some of your saved cash and put it to work. Not all of it but some of it. Do a measured and equal investment at the end of June and July. If you are less daring, then put money in at the end of June, July, August and September. Strive to hit your goal cash to equity ratio. You should be sitting on a pile of cash at this time because your stock value has been hit hard by the recent correction.
For example, let us say that you had $100,000 in total investments. You have been good and had 30% as your cash to equity ratio. You have $30,000 in cash still but your stocks have dropped by 10% (or more it you at taking on risk - like I have). Your total investments are now $30,000 + $63,000 = $93,000. Today your ratio is ($30,000 / $93,000) *100 or 32.25%. This means you have too much cash. To get back to 30% cash you need $93,000 * (30/100) = $27,900 cash. So take $30,000 - $27,900 = $2100 and buy more stock. Spread this investment out over time and you are not then "timing" the market but investing more safely.
It is hard to see today but a rally will come and it will overpower today's losses for a net positive earnings. The system does work. Make no mistake, it is work to do it right and a leap of faith too. At least until you see it working for yourself.
My heart is with you. As always good luck with your investments and thanks for your support!
About the Author
I am an experienced and successful investor of many years and the owner/operator of www.MarkElliotInvestments.com. I want to help you to become a better investor too. Visit Mark Elliot Investments for more interesting investment advice and help.
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